标题: Research on spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of hand foot and mouth disease in China from 2008 to 2017

作者: Jun Yan, Jiqiang Niu, Ke Liu, Xiaoyu Zou

来源出版物：Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 2022

出版年: 2022

文献类型: Article

语种: English

摘要: There were 18 183 889 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) reported in mainland China from 2008 to 2017. It is important to control and prevent the disease by monitoring spatial-temporal pattern effectively. We described the spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of HFMD in China to provide information and provide implements for preventing the disease. The HFMD data of China is retrieved from National Center for Disease Control and Prevention according to month. Descriptive analysis was conducted to evaluate the epidemic features. Spatial autocorrelation analysis is performed to explore the spatial-temporal pattern by Moran index for the overall distribution and GETIS-ord index for the cold and hot spots of HFMD. Multiscale geographically weighted regression is employed to analyse influencing factors of HFMD. The results show that: ① HFMD has a dramatic increase and become a major national infectious disease in recent years, with an average growth rate of 134.34 per 100 thousandth. ② The population characteristics with two peak ages of 0−5 and 25−30; There were two incidence peak occurring in April to July, and in November, the incidence is highest in May and the lowest in February. ③ There were higher HFMD incidence rate in southeastern areas with double peaks than that in northwestern areas with a single peak. ④ The main meteorological factors like humidity, precipitation, temperature mainly affect the seasonal variation of HFMD, while the main socio-economic factors like the number of beds per thousand and urbanization rate affect the interannual variation and spatial differentiation of HFMD. HFMD incidence rate had an increasing trend in southern areas. There was a dominant heterogeneity at the period of incidence and diffusion. The natural and economic factors were associated with the epidemic of HFMD. Thus, prevention and control measures should be implemented to reduce the incidence and mortality depending on its characteristics in different provinces.

关键词: Hand, foot and mouse disease, spatial-temporal pattern, multiscale geographically weighted regression, China

论文连接: https://www.prt-parlar.de/download_feb_2022/